Analyzing Travel Time Reliability of a Bus Route in a Limited Data Set Scenario: A Case Study



Automatic Vehicle Location, Intelligent transportation, Travel time variability, Travel time reliability


In this information era commuters prefer to know a reliable travel time to plan ahead of their journey using both public and private modes. In this direction reliability analysis using the location data of the buses is conducted in two folds in the current work; (i) Reliability analysis of a public transit service at route level, and (ii) Travel time reliability analysis of a route utilizing the location data of the buses. The reliability parameters assessed for public transit service are headway, passenger waiting time, travel speed, and travel time as per the Service Level Benchmarks for Urban Transport by the National Urban Transport Policy, Government of India. And travel time reliability parameters such as Buffer Time Index, Travel Time Index, and Planning Time Index are assessed as per Federal Highway Administration, Department of Transportation, U S. The study is conducted in Tumakuru city, India for a significant bus route in a limited data sources scenario.  The results suggest that (i) the Level of Service of the public transit service needs improvement. (ii)around 30% excess of average travel time is needed as buffer time. (iii) more than double the amount of free flow travel time must be planned during peak hours and in the worst case. In the future, the analysis conducted for the route can be extended for citywide performance analysis in both folds. Also, the same method can be applied to cities with similar demographics and traffic-related infrastructure.


Download data is not yet available.


V. K. Giduthuri, “Sustainable Urban Mobility: Challenges, Initiatives and Planning”, Curr. Urban Stud., vol 03, no 03, bll 261–265, 2015, doi: 10.4236/cus.2015.33022.

R. M. Savithramma, B. P. Ashwini, en R. Sumathi, “Smart Mobility Implementation in Smart Cities: A Comprehensive Review on State-of-art Technologies”, 2022 4th Int. Conf. Smart Syst. Inven. Technol., bll 10–17, 2022, doi: 10.1109/icssit53264.2022.9716288.

A. Bull, Traffic Congestion - The Problem and How to Deal with it? 2004.

K. Hirota en J. Poot, “Taxes and the environmental impact of private car use: Evidence from 68 cities”, Adv. Spat. Sci., vol 47, bll 299–317, 2005, doi: 10.1007/3-540-28550-4_15.

T. Xia, Y. Zhang, S. Crabb, en P. Shah, “Cobenefits of replacing car trips with alternative transportation: A review of evidence and methodological issues”, J. Environ. Public Health, vol 2013, no 1, 2013, doi: 10.1155/2013/797312.

A. El-Geneidy, J. Hourdos, en J. Horning, “Bus Transit Service Planning and Operations in a Competitive Environment”, J. Public Transp., vol 12, no 3, bll 39–59, 2009, doi: 10.5038/2375-0901.12.3.3.

Center of Excellence in Urban Transportation CEPT, “Service Level Benchmark in Urban Transport for Indian Cities Volume-I-Benchmarking Manual”, bll 1–72, 2013, [Online]. Available at:

A. Jarašūniene, “Research into intelligent transport systems (ITS) technologies and efficiency”, Transport, vol 22, no 2, bll 61–67, 2007, doi: 10.1080/16484142.2007.9638100.

A. Farhan, “Bus travel time prediction model for dynamic operations control and passenger information systems”, 2002. [Online]. Available at:

D. Banister en D. Stead, “Impact of information and communications technology on transport”, Transp. Rev., vol 24, no 5, bll 611–632, 2004, doi: 10.1080/0144164042000206060.

A. B P, S. R M, en R. Sumathi, “Artificial Intelligence in Smart City Applications: An overview”, in 6th International Conference on Intelligent Computing and Control Systems (ICICCS), 2022, no Iciccs, bll 986–993, doi: 10.1109/iciccs53718.2022.9788152.

P. B. Ashwini en R. Sumathi, “Data sources for urban traffic prediction: A review on classification, comparison and technologies”, Proc. 3rd Int. Conf. Intell. Sustain. Syst. ICISS 2020, bll 628–635, 2020, doi: 10.1109/ICISS49785.2020.9316096.

B. P. Ashwini, R. Sumathi, en H. S. Sudhira, “Bus Travel Time Prediction: A Comparative Study of Linear and Non-Linear Machine Learning Models”, J. Phys. Conf. Ser., vol 2161, no 1, bl 012053, 2022, doi: 10.1088/1742-6596/2161/1/012053.

B. P. Ashwini, R. Sumathi, en H. S. Sudhira, “A Dynamic Model for Bus Arrival Time Estimation based on Spatial Patterns using Machine Learning”, Int. J. Eng. Trends Technol., vol 70, no 9, bll 185–193, 2022, doi: 10.14445/22315381/IJETT-V70I9P219.

A. Chepuri, M. Borakanavar, R. Amrutsamanvar, S. Arkatkar D, en G. Joshi, “Examining travel time reliability under mixed traffic conditions: A case study of urban arterial roads in Indian cities”, Asian Transp. Stud., vol 5, no 1, bll 30–46, 2018, doi: 10.11175/eastsats.5.30.

F. Zheng, J. Li, H. van Zuylen, X. Liu, en H. Yang, “Urban travel time reliability at different traffic conditions”, J. Intell. Transp. Syst. Technol. Planning, Oper., vol 22, no 2, bll 106–120, Mrt 2018, doi: 10.1080/15472450.2017.1412829.

R. M. Savithramma, R. Sumathi, en H. S. Sudhira, “A Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Algorithms in Design Process of Adaptive Traffic Signal Control System”, J. Phys. Conf. Ser., vol 2161, no 1, 2022, doi: 10.1088/1742-6596/2161/1/012054.

R. Ashwini, B.P., Sumathi, “Variability Analysis of Public Transit Bus Travel Time Using GPS Logs: A Case Study”, in Proceedings of the Third International Conference on Information Management and Machine Intelligence. Algorithms for Intelligent Systems. Springer, Singapore., 2022, bll 567–577, doi: 10.1007/978-981-19-2065-3_60.

R. M. Savithramma, R. Sumathi, en H. S. Sudhira, “Variability Analysis of Isolated Intersections Through Case Study”, Int. J. Eng. Trends Technol., vol 70, no 8, bll 359–374, 2022, doi: 10.14445/22315381/IJETT-V70I8P237.

G. Raj G., C. R. Sekhar, en S. Velmurugan, “Micro Simulation based Performance Evaluation of Delhi Bus Rapid Transit Corridor”, Procedia - Soc. Behav. Sci., vol 104, bll 825–834, Des 2013, doi: 10.1016/j.sbspro.2013.11.177.

I. Yatskiv, I. Pticina, en M. Savrasovs, “Urban public transport system’s reliability estimation using microscopic simulation”, Transp. Telecommun., vol 13, no 3, bll 219–228, 2012, doi: 10.2478/v10244-012-0018-4.

N. Van Oort, “Incorporating enhanced service reliability of public transport in cost-benefit analyses”, Public Transp., vol 8, no 1, bll 143–160, 2016, doi: 10.1007/s12469-016-0121-3.

M. M. Aydın, “The modeling of effective parameters on public bus passengers’ boarding time prediction”, J. Eng. Res., vol 10, no 1, bll 1–16, 2022, doi: 10.36909/jer.10079.

A. Chepuri, J. Ramakrishnan, S. Arkatkar, G. Joshi, en S. S. Pulugurtha, “Examining Travel Time Reliability-Based Performance Indicators for Bus Routes Using GPS-Based Bus Trajectory Data in India”, J. Transp. Eng. Part A Syst., vol 144, no 5, bl 04018012, Mei 2018, doi: 10.1061/jtepbs.0000109.

Z. Xiaoliang en J. Limin, “Analysis of bus line operation reliability based on copula function”, Sustain., vol 13, no 15, bll 1–15, 2021, doi: 10.3390/su13158419.

J. Soza-Parra, S. Raveau, en J. C. Muñoz, “Public transport reliability across preferences, modes, and space”, Transportation (Amst)., no March, 2021, doi: 10.1007/s11116-021-10188-2.

U. S. D. of T. FHWA, “Travel time reliability: making it there on time, all the time”, 2006. [Online]. Available at:

A. Chepuri, C. Kumar, P. Bhanegaonkar, S. S. Arkatkar, en G. Joshi, “Travel Time Reliability Analysis on Selected Bus Route of Mysore Using GPS Data”, Transp. Dev. Econ., vol 5, no 2, 2019, doi: 10.1007/s40890-019-0083-7.

A. Kathuria, M. Parida, en C. R. Sekhar, “A Review of Service Reliability Measures for Public Transportation Systems”, Int. J. Intell. Transp. Syst. Res., vol 18, no 2, bll 243–255, 2020, doi: 10.1007/s13177-019-00195-0.

X. Ma, A. Vit, en D. Rogano, “Development of a data-driven platform for transit performance measures using smart card and GPS data”, J. Transp. Eng., vol 140, no 12, 2014, doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)TE.1943-5436.0000714.

L. J. Qin, Y. Lv, L. N. Zhang, en X. Cai, “Evaluation of the reliability of bus service based on GPS and Smart Card data”, 2011 IEEE Int. Conf. Qual. Reliab. ICQR 2011, no 757, bll 130–134, 2011, doi: 10.1109/ICQR.2011.6031695.

K. T. Vidya en B. P. Ashwini, “Survey on Real Time Traffic Analysis on Big Data”, Proc. 2nd Int. Conf. Trends Electron. Informatics, ICOEI 2018, no Icoei, bll 852–858, 2018, doi: 10.1109/ICOEI.2018.8553757.

E. Mazloumi, G. Rose, G. Currie, en M. Sarvi, “An integrated framework to predict bus travel time and its variability using traffic flow data”, J. Intell. Transp. Syst. Technol. Planning, Oper., vol 15, no 2, bll 75–90, Apr 2011, doi: 10.1080/15472450.2011.570109.

K. Birr, K. Jamroz, en W. Kustra, “Travel time of public transport vehicles estimation”, in Transportation Research Procedia, 2014, vol 3, bll 359–365, doi: 10.1016/j.trpro.2014.10.016.

G. Sugiyanto, Y. Yanto, A. Wibowo, en T. W. Astoto, “Service quality of transit and demand-supply forecasting for ride-hailing in the Jakarta Greater Area, Indonesia”, J. Eng. Res., bll 1–17, 2021, doi: 10.36909/jer.14725.

W. Farag, “Bayesian Localization in Real-Time using Probabilistic Maps and Unscented-Kalman-Filters”, J. Eng. Res., vol 10, no 3, bll 109–132, 2022, doi: 10.36909/jer.11073.

E. Alenzi, S. A. Hassan, en O. C. Puan, “Car following behaviours on multilane highways in Kuwait: A case study on road 40 during winter season”, J. Eng. Res., vol 10, no 1B, bll 86–102, 2022, doi: 10.36909/jer.10565.

J. Esmailpour, K. Aghabayk, M. Abrari Vajari, en C. De Gruyter, “Importance – Performance Analysis (IPA) of bus service attributes: A case study in a developing country”, Transp. Res. Part A Policy Pract., vol 142, no May, bll 129–150, 2020, doi: 10.1016/j.tra.2020.10.020.

Kittelson & Associates Inc. Parsons Brinckerhoff Inc. KFH Group Inc. Texas A&M Transportation Institute en Arup, “TCRP Report 165: Transit Capacity and Quality of Service Manual, 3rd Edition”, Transp. Res. Board Natl. Acad., bl 50, 2013, [Online]. Available at:

MoUD, “Service Level Benchmarks for Urban Transport at a Glance”, bll 1–45, 2009, [Online]. Available at:

T. Terminology, “Glossary of Transit Terminology”, Transit, bll 1–6, 2004.

A. K. Sankar, K, N Seshadri, R.S. Moorthy, Suneer Vazhayil, “Comprehensive Mobility Plan for CMA Final Report”. Directorate of Urban Land Transport, Urban Development Department, Government of Karnataka, bll 1–197, 2014.

U. L. Transport, “TUMKUR CITY BUS SERVICE Directorate of Urban Land Transport”, 2013, [Online]. Available at: city bus service.pdf.

J. L. Rosenblum, D. W. Allen, T. L. Bennett, R. K. Warade, en C. M. Stoughton, “Method for assessing bus delay in mixed traffic to identify transit priority improvement locations in Cambridge, Massachusetts”, Transp. Res. Rec., vol 2533, no March 2016, bll 60–67, 2015, doi: 10.3141/2533-07.

L. STEG, “Can Public Transport Compete With the Private Car?”, IATSS Res., vol 27, no 2, bll 27–35, 2003, doi: 10.1016/s0386-1112(14)60141-2.

R. Savithramma, R.M., Sumathi, “Comparative Analysis of Waiting Delay Estimation Models for Signalized Intersections: A Case Study Tumakuru City”, in Proceedings of the Third International Conference on Information Management and Machine Intelligence. Algorithms for Intelligent Systems., 2022, bll 579–589, doi: 10.1007/978-981-19-2065-3_61.

R. M. Savithramma en R. Sumathi, “Road traffic signal control and management system: A survey”, Proc. 3rd Int. Conf. Intell. Sustain. Syst. ICISS 2020, bll 104–110, 2020, doi: 10.1109/ICISS49785.2020.9315970.

X. Qu, E. Oh, J. Weng, en S. Jin, “Bus travel time reliability analysis: A case study”, Proc. Inst. Civ. Eng. Transp., vol 167, no 3, bll 178–184, 2014, doi: 10.1680/tran.13.00009.

U. D. Government, “Ministry of Urban Development Government of India National Urban Transport Policy , 2014”, 2014.

S. R M, S. R, en S. H S, “Reinforcement learning based traffic signal controller with state reduction”, J. Eng. Res., vol 11, no 1, bll 1–6, 2023, doi:

R. M. Savithramma, R. Sumathi, en H. S. Sudhira, “SMART Emergency Vehicle Management at Signalized Intersection using Machine Learning”, Indian J. Sci. Technol., vol 15, no 35, bll 1754–1763, 2022, doi: 10.17485/ijst/v15i35.1151.

A. Girijan, L. D. Vanajakshi, en B. R. Chilukuri, “Dynamic Thresholds Identification for Green Extension and Red Truncation Strategies for Bus Priority”, IEEE Access, vol 9, bll 64291–64305, 2021, doi: 10.1109/ACCESS.2021.3074361.

B. T. Thodi, B. R. Chilukuri, en L. Vanajakshi, “An analytical approach to real-time bus signal priority system for isolated intersections”, J. Intell. Transp. Syst. Technol. Planning, Oper., vol 0, no 0, bll 1–23, 2021, doi: 10.1080/15472450.2020.1797504.

Indian Road Congress, “Urban Road Code of Practice”. 2013, [Online]. Available at: Road Code of Practice.pdf.

Route map of route Tumakuru Bus Stand to Kyathasandra




How to Cite

B. P., A. ., Sumathi, R. ., & H. S., S. . (2023). Analyzing Travel Time Reliability of a Bus Route in a Limited Data Set Scenario: A Case Study. International Journal of Intelligent Systems and Applications in Engineering, 11(2), 30–39. Retrieved from



Research Article