A Multifaceted Method for Election Prediction on Multiple Social Media Platforms Using Machine Learning

Authors

  • Sanjay Kumar Gupta, K. P. Yadav

Keywords:

Election Prediction, Social media platforms, machine learning, ensembled learning, Natural language processing

Abstract

The paper presents a Multifaceted Method for Election Prediction on Multiple Social Media Platforms Using Machine Learning" . It is a novel approach to forecasting election outcomes by leveraging data from various social media platforms like Facebook, twitter and YouTube. . By employing machine learning algorithms, the method integrates diverse social media signals, such as user sentiment, engagement metrics, and topic trends, to create a comprehensive prediction model. The model has optimize sentiment analysis as well as use of proposed ensemble approach. This multifaceted approach aims to improve the accuracy of election predictions by capturing a wider array of public opinions and behaviors across different social media ecosystems. The study demonstrates the potential of this method through case studies and empirical analysis, highlighting its effectiveness. Evaluation of proposed method with existing models have been conducted and found that proposed method got good accuracy over others. It is approximate 94.27 ℅ for combined data and proposed ensemble approach also have good accuracy over state of art methods.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Woolley, A.W., Chabris, C.F., Pentland, A., Hashmi, N., & Malone, T.W., “Evidence for a Collective Intelligence Factor in the Performance of Human Groups.” Science, 330, 686, 2010.

Muhammad Bilal, Abdullah Gani, Mohsen Marjani, Nadia Malik, “predicting elections: social media data and techniques”, IEEE, 2019.

Irmalasari and L. Dwiyanti, "Algorithm Analysis of Decision Tree, Gradient Boosting Decision Tree, and Random Forest for Classification (Case Study: West Java House of Representatives Election 2019)," 2023 International Conference on Electrical Engineering and Informatics (ICEEI), Bandung, Indonesia, 2023, pp. 1-5, doi: 10.1109/ICEEI59426.2023.10346727.

D. R. Wulandari, M. A. Murti and H. F. T.S.P, "Sentiment Analysis Based on Text About President Candidate 2024 in Indonesia Using Artificial Intelligence with Parameter Optimization Algorithm," 2023 IEEE International Conference on Internet of Things and Intelligence Systems (IoTaIS), Bali, Indonesia, 2023, pp. 216-222, doi: 10.1109/IoTaIS60147.2023.10346038.

S. Perera and K. Karunanayaka, "Sentiment Analysis of Social Media Data using Fuzzy-Rough Set Classifier for the Prediction of the Presidential Election," 2022 2nd International Conference on Advanced Research in Computing (ICARC), Belihuloya, Sri Lanka, 2022, pp. 188-193, doi: 10.1109/ICARC54489.2022.9754173.

M. Fachrie and F. Ardiani, "Predictive Model for Regional Elections Results based on Candidate Profiles," 2021 8th International Conference on Electrical Engineering, Computer Science and Informatics (EECSI), Semarang, Indonesia, 2021, pp. 247-252, doi: 10.23919/EECSI53397.2021.9624256.

P. KhuranaBatra, A. Saxena, Shruti and C. Goel, "Election Result Prediction Using Twitter Sentiments Analysis," 2020 Sixth International Conference on Parallel, Distributed and Grid Computing (PDGC), Waknaghat, India, 2020, pp. 182-185, doi: 10.1109/PDGC50313.2020.9315789.

K. d. S. Brito and P. J. L. Adeodato, "Predicting Brazilian and U.S. Elections with Machine Learning and Social Media Data," 2020 International Joint Conference on Neural Networks (IJCNN), Glasgow, UK, 2020, pp. 1-8, doi: 10.1109/IJCNN48605.2020.9207147.

D. A. Kristiyanti, A. H. Umam, M. Wahyudi, R. Amin and L. Marlinda, "Comparison of SVM & Naïve Bayes Algorithm for Sentiment Analysis Toward West Java Governor Candidate Period 2018-2023 Based on Public Opinion on Twitter," 2018 6th International Conference on Cyber and IT Service Management (CITSM), Parapat, Indonesia, 2018, pp. 1-6, doi: 10.1109/CITSM.2018.8674352.

P. Juneja and U. Ojha, "Casting online votes: To predict offline results using sentiment analysis by machine learning classifiers," 2017 8th International Conference on Computing, Communication and Networking Technologies (ICCCNT), Delhi, India, 2017, pp. 1-6, doi: 10.1109/ICCCNT.2017.8203996.

OlusolaOlabanjo, AshiriboWusu, OseniAfisi, MautonAsokere, Rebecca Padonu, OlufemiOlabanjo, OluwafolakeOjo, OlusegunFolorunso, Benjamin Aribisala, Manuel Mazzara, “From Twitter to Aso-Rock: A sentiment analysis framework for understanding Nigeria 2023 presidential election”, Heliyon, Volume 9, Issue 5, 2023, e16085, ISSN 2405-8440, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e16085.

MudasirMohd, SaheebaJaveed, MohsinAltafWani, Hilal Ahmad Khanday, AbidHussainWani, Umar Bashir Mir, Sheikh Nasrullah, poliWeet — Election prediction tool using tweets,

Software Impacts, Volume 17, 2023, 100542, ISSN 2665-9638, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.simpa.2023.100542.

Amir Karami, Spring B. Clark, Anderson Mackenzie, Dorathea Lee, Michael Zhu, Hannah R. Boyajieff, Bailey Goldschmidt, 2020 U.S. presidential election in swing states: Gender differences in Twitter conversations, International Journal of Information Management Data Insights, Volume 2, Issue 2, 2022,100097, ISSN 2667-0968, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jjimei.2022.100097.

Margarita Rodríguez-Ibanez, Antonio Casanez-Ventura, Felix Castejon-Mateos, Pedro-Manuel Cuenca-Jimenez, “A review on sentiment analysis from social media platforms”, Expert Systems with Applications, Volume 223, 2023, 119862, ISSN 0957-4174, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2023.119862.

Ulrike Reisach, “The responsibility of social media in times of societal and political manipulation”, European Journal of Operational Research, Volume 291, Issue 3, 2021, Pages 906-917, ISSN 0377-2217, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2020.09.020.

David OpeoluwaOyewola, LawalAbdullahiOladimeji, SoworeOlatunji Julius, LummoBalaKachalla, Emmanuel Gbenga Dada, “Optimizing sentiment analysis of Nigerian 2023 presidential election using two-stage residual long short term memory”, Heliyon, Volume 9, Issue 4, 2023, e14836, ISSN 2405-8440, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e14836.

Sunarso, BenniSetiawan, Ni PutuPandeSatyaAnjani, “The political satire of Mojok.co in the 2019 Indonesian election”, Heliyon, Volume 8, Issue 7, 2022, e10018,

ISSN 2405-8440, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e10018.

MdSafiullah, PramodPathak, Saumya Singh, AnkitaAnshul, “Social media as an upcoming tool for political marketing effectiveness”, Asia Pacific Management Review, Volume 22, Issue 1, 2017, Pages 10-15, ISSN 1029-3132, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apmrv.2016.10.007.

Iain S. Weaver, Hywel Williams, Iulia Cioroianu, LorienJasney, Travis Coan, Susan Banducci, “Communities of online news exposure during the UK General Election 2015”, Online Social Networks and Media, Volumes 10–11, 2019, Pages 18-30, ISSN 2468-6964, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.osnem.2019.05.001.

Giulia Caprini, “Does candidates’ media exposure affect vote shares? Evidence from Pope breaking news”, Journal of Public Economics, Volume 220, 2023, 104847, ISSN 0047-2727, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2023.104847.

SayyidaTabindaKokab, SohailAsghar, ShehneelaNaz, “Transformer-based deep learning models for the sentiment analysis of social media data”, Array, Volume 14, 2022,

100157, ISSN 2590-0056, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.array.2022.100157.

MohdZeeshan Ansari, M.B. Aziz, M.O. Siddiqui, H. Mehra, K.P. Singh, “Analysis of Political Sentiment Orientations on Twitter”, Procedia Computer Science, Volume 167, 2020, Pages 1821-1828, ISSN 1877-0509, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2020.03.201.

Zuloaga-Rotta L, Borja-Rosales R, Rodríguez Mallma MJ, Mauricio D, Maculan N. “Method to Forecast the Presidential Election Results Based on Simulation and Machine Learning”. Computation. 2024; 12(3):38. https://doi.org/10.3390/computation12030038

KellytonBrito, RogérioLuiz Cardoso Silva Filho, Paulo Jorge LeitãoAdeodato, “Stop trying to predict elections only with twitter – There are other data sources and technical issues to be improved”,Government Information Quarterly,Volume 41, Issue 1,2024,101899,ISSN 0740-624X,https://doi.org/10.1016/j.giq.2023.101899.

Kirkizh, N., Ulloa, R.,Stier, S., &Pfeffer, J. “Predicting political attitudes from web tracking data: a machine learning approach”. Journal of Information Technology & Politics, 1–14. 2024, https://doi.org/10.1080/19331681.2024.2316679

Downloads

Published

09.07.2024

How to Cite

Sanjay Kumar Gupta. (2024). A Multifaceted Method for Election Prediction on Multiple Social Media Platforms Using Machine Learning. International Journal of Intelligent Systems and Applications in Engineering, 12(22s), 1267 –. Retrieved from https://ijisae.org/index.php/IJISAE/article/view/6589

Issue

Section

Research Article